Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Thursday, June 18

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park

Park 1.0180F / 14 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 18

NYMaway

Sean Manaea

Limited form sample

Last: vs ATL6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 KGS+ 58

Proj GS+ 57.56.0 IP6.0 K2.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.691 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 24th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

54.4

score

Top watch score in this group

Form clash pending

PHIhome

Aaron Nola

Form 43.8 · 6.91 ERA

→Steady +3.5
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.35.0 IP4.7 K4.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.666 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 26th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Aaron Nola recent form GS+: 38, 55, 57, 29, 40

Top arm

58.0

Pairing

50.9

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#2

Must-watch

MIN @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#2 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

1st matchup

Top arm

55.0

Pairing

48.1

Joe Ryan

MIN

Form 55.0 · 2.87 ERA

→Steady -0.5
6d rest100 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 55.06.1 IP7.6 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.709 OPS25.6% KOPS rank 16th
Proj K 7.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Joe Ryan recent form GS+: 65, 60, 46, 53, 51

Jack Leiter

TEX

Form 41.2 · 4.86 ERA

→Steady -3.0
6d rest95 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 41.25.1 IP4.6 K2.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.695 OPS21.9% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 4.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Jack Leiter recent form GS+: 38, 41, 64, 28, 35

#3

Must-watch

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#3 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0067F / 2 mph wind

4th matchup

Top arm

54.4

Pairing

49.6

Matthew Liberatore

STL

Form 44.8 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.14.2 IP5.5 K2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Matthew Liberatore recent form GS+: 44, 48, 57, 39, 36

Noah Cameron

KC

Form 54.4 · 2.62 ERA

→Steady +1.4
5d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 54.75.2 IP4.9 K1.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Noah Cameron recent form GS+: 60, 49, 66, 63, 34

#4

Worth it

BAL @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#4 of 9 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

49.6

Shane Baz

BAL

Form 51.8 · 2.39 ERA

→Steady +1.3
6d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.26.0 IP4.6 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Shane Baz recent form GS+: 54, 60, 55, 49, 41

Bryan Woo

SEA

Form 47.4 · 4.97 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.05.2 IP5.7 K2.8 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Bryan Woo recent form GS+: 63, 35, 69, 42, 28

Opponent split context pending.

#5

Worth it

TOR @ BOS

PregameFenway Park#5 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0575F / 16 mph wind / 30% rain

5th matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

47.6

Trey Yesavage

TOR

Form 45.0 · 4.98 ERA

→Steady -1.2
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.25.2 IP4.9 K3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.680 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Trey Yesavage recent form GS+: 67, 42, 48, 35, 33

Sonny Gray

BOS

Form 50.2 · 2.86 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.45.2 IP5.5 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.721 OPS19.1% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Sonny Gray recent form GS+: 59, 39, 55, 41, 57

#6

Worth it

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#6 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0061F / 10 mph wind

2nd matchup

Top arm

48.5

Pairing

47.2

TBD

LAA

TBD

Gage Jump

ATH

Form 48.5 · 3.09 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.66.0 IP4.9 K2.0 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Gage Jump recent form GS+: 36, 57, 55, 46

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

CLE @ MIL

PregameAmerican Family Field#7 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

7th matchup

Top arm

48.0

Pairing

46.9

Parker Messick

CLE

Form 48.0 · 3.33 ERA

→Steady +0.0
8d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.25.1 IP4.5 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.755 OPS20.4% KOPS rank 4th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Parker Messick recent form GS+: 47, 59, 49, 45, 40

Shane Drohan

MIL

Form 45.7 · 5.28 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest76 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.75.0 IP5.2 K2.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS21.0% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Shane Drohan recent form GS+: 47, 45, 45

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#8 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0381F / 10 mph wind

8th matchup

Top arm

47.0

Pairing

44.2

Sean Burke

CWS

Form 47.0 · 4.62 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.45.0 IP5.9 K2.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.763 OPS22.7% KOPS rank 3rd
Proj K 5.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Sean Burke recent form GS+: 38, 47, 59, 54, 37

Ryan Weathers

NYY

Form 41.4 · 6.44 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.86.0 IP5.5 K4.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryan Weathers recent form GS+: 39, 57, 47, 38, 26

#9

Background

SF @ ATL

PregameTruist Park#9 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0173F / 13 mph wind / 72% rain

9th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.1

Landen Roupp

SF

Form 42.4 · 5.68 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.35.0 IP4.7 K3.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Landen Roupp recent form GS+: 48, 49, 20, 52, 43

Martín Pérez

ATL

Form 45.8 · 3.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.75.1 IP4.5 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.735 OPS19.7% KOPS rank 10th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50