Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Friday, June 19

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park

Park 1.0169F / 5 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 19

MILaway

Jacob Misiorowski

Form 69.2 · 0.25 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 68.57.1 IP10.1 K0.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 10.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jacob Misiorowski recent form GS+: 65, 71, 70, 60, 80

The hook

63.9

score

Top watch score in this group

Form clash pending

ATLhome

TBD

Starter TBDleague baseline used

Projection pending

Proj K --prop pendingTeam total pending

Top arm

69.2

Pairing

57.5

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#2

Must-watch

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#2 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

2nd matchup

Top arm

63.5

Pairing

55.1

Ranger Suarez

BOS

Form 46.6 · 4.56 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.05.0 IP5.8 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.741 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 5.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Ranger Suarez recent form GS+: 47, 34, 46, 58, 48

Bryce Miller

SEA

Form 63.5 · 0.73 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest82 pitch avg
Run prevention
Proj GS+ 63.16.1 IP7.2 K0.4 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.680 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 7.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Bryce Miller recent form GS+: 65, 62, 66, 61

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#3

Must-watch

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#3 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

3rd matchup

Top arm

52.8

Pairing

49.3

TBD

MIN

TBD

Michael Soroka

AZ

Form 52.8 · 2.63 ERA

→Steady +0.1
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.56.1 IP5.2 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.734 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Soroka recent form GS+: 49, 48, 45, 59, 63

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium#4 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9863F / 5 mph wind

5th matchup

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

48.8

TBD

BAL

TBD

Roki Sasaki

LAD

Form 51.8 · 3.45 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.45.2 IP6.0 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.746 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Roki Sasaki recent form GS+: 64, 45, 58, 70, 22

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#5 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

4th matchup

Top arm

49.8

Pairing

49.2

Tanner Bibee

CLE

Form 48.6 · 3.72 ERA

→Steady +1.4
7d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.96.1 IP4.1 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Tanner Bibee recent form GS+: 58, 20, 47, 61, 57

Tatsuya Imai

HOU

Form 49.8 · 2.91 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample13d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.15.1 IP4.7 K1.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS21.0% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Tatsuya Imai recent form GS+: 45, 53, 51, 50

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#6

Worth it

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#6 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0369F / 9 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

51.5

Pairing

48.7

Rhett Lowder

CIN

Form 51.5

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.24.1 IP4.7 K0.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.801 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Rhett Lowder recent form GS+: 50, 53

TBD

NYY

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#7 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

8th matchup

Top arm

48.6

Pairing

48.3

Cade Cavalli

WSH

Form 48.0 · 3.93 ERA

→Steady -0.8
6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.05.2 IP5.6 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.732 OPS19.6% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 5.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Cade Cavalli recent form GS+: 58, 56, 46, 33, 47

Griffin Jax

TB

Form 48.6 · 3.43 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest59 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.64.1 IP4.5 K1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Griffin Jax recent form GS+: 55, 44, 31, 56, 57

#8

Worth it

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#8 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0470F / 7 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

TOR

TBD

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#9

Background

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#9 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

SF

TBD

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#10

Background

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#10 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0066F / 5 mph wind / 11% rain

9th matchup

Top arm

46.2

Pairing

43.5

Michael McGreevy

STL

Form 40.8 · 4.67 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest88 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 41.05.1 IP2.8 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.683 OPS20.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael McGreevy recent form GS+: 33, 34, 44, 51, 42

Seth Lugo

KC

Form 46.2 · 4.05 ERA

→Steady +0.0
9d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.65.1 IP3.9 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Seth Lugo recent form GS+: 51, 43, 55, 36, 46

#11

Background

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#11 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

11th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

42.3

Randy Vásquez

SD

Form 38.8 · 4.50 ERA

→Steady -3.2
6d rest86 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 38.84.2 IP2.2 K2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.693 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 2.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Randy Vásquez recent form GS+: 35, 36, 46, 31, 46

TBD

TEX

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#12

Background

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#12 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0059F / 7 mph wind

14th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

41.3

TBD

LAA

TBD

Jeffrey Springs

ATH

Form 36.8 · 6.60 ERA

→Steady -2.2
5d rest88 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 37.14.2 IP3.4 K3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 3.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Jeffrey Springs recent form GS+: 41, 50, 34, 29, 30

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#13 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9860F / 6 mph wind

10th matchup

Top arm

44.0

Pairing

42.5

Erick Fedde

CWS

Form 41.0

→Steady +0.0
Small sample16d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.74.0 IP2.0 K1.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS23.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Erick Fedde recent form GS+: 28, 54

Tarik Skubal

DET

Last: vs CLEGS+ 44

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#14

Background

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#14 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.1668F / 7 mph wind

13th matchup

Top arm

45.2

Pairing

38.7

Bubba Chandler

PIT

Form 45.2 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.04.2 IP4.8 K2.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.753 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Bubba Chandler recent form GS+: 34, 66, 38, 36, 52

Kyle Freeland

COL

Form 32.2 · 10.05 ERA

→Steady +2.0
6d rest89 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 31.05.0 IP3.7 K5.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.690 OPS26.4% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 3.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Freeland recent form GS+: 39, 22, 34, 36, 30