Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

One card per game, ranked by starter form and matchup context. Probables are grouped head-to-head instead of duplicated by pitcher.

Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Sunday, June 21

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Week view

Must-watch

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium

Park 1.0068F / 9 mph wind / 48% rain

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 21

STLaway

Dustin May

Form 60.0 · 2.54 ERA

→Steady +3.0
6d rest94 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 60.26.2 IP6.8 K1.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 6.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Dustin May recent form GS+: 43, 66, 53, 61, 77

The hook

58.0

score

Top watch score in this group

STLForm clashKC

Dustin May recent form GS+: 43, 66, 53, 61, 77

Stephen Kolek recent form GS+: 60, 42, 54, 48, 62

KChome

Stephen Kolek

Form 53.2 · 1.59 ERA

→Steady -0.3
7d rest96 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.66.2 IP3.9 K1.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.721 OPS22.4% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Stephen Kolek recent form GS+: 60, 42, 54, 48, 62

Top arm

60.0

Pairing

56.6

#2

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park#2 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0174F / 3 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

56.4

Pairing

51.1

TBD

NYM

TBD

Zack Wheeler

PHI

Form 56.4 · 1.66 ERA

→Steady -1.4
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 56.46.1 IP6.4 K1.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.675 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 6.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Zack Wheeler recent form GS+: 61, 43, 60, 54, 64

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#3

Must-watch

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#3 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0384F / 14 mph wind

7th matchup

Top arm

56.6

Pairing

51.2

Chase Burns

CIN

Form 56.6 · 2.28 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest96 pitch avg
K-rate ↑
Proj GS+ 55.85.2 IP7.5 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.801 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 7.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Chase Burns recent form GS+: 66, 53, 55, 53, 56

TBD

NYY

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium#4 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.9868F / 8 mph wind

8th matchup

Top arm

48.3

Pairing

47.1

TBD

BAL

TBD

Emmet Sheehan

LAD

Form 48.3 · 4.64 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest84 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.75.1 IP5.0 K2.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.746 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Emmet Sheehan recent form GS+: 37, 54, 51, 51

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#5 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

9th matchup

Top arm

49.4

Pairing

45.1

Slade Cecconi

CLE

Form 49.4 · 3.24 ERA

→Steady -0.4
5d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.55.1 IP4.1 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Slade Cecconi recent form GS+: 47, 40, 56, 53, 51

Kai-Wei Teng

HOU

Form 40.8 · 5.40 ERA

→Steady -3.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 40.94.2 IP5.2 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS21.0% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Kai-Wei Teng recent form GS+: 60, 45, 30, 31, 38

#6

Worth it

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#6 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

6th matchup

Top arm

48.2

Pairing

47.0

Payton Tolle

BOS

Form 48.2 · 3.53 ERA

→Steady -1.0
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.65.2 IP4.8 K2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.741 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Payton Tolle recent form GS+: 51, 52, 55, 37, 46

TBD

SEA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#7 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

SF

TBD

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#8

Worth it

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#8 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0460F / 8 mph wind / 58% rain

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

TOR

TBD

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#9

Background

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#9 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

SD

TBD

TBD

TEX

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#10

Background

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park#10 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0178F / 11 mph wind / 54% rain

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.3

Robert Gasser

MIL

Form 44.8 · 4.88 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.74.2 IP4.2 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 4.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Robert Gasser recent form GS+: 43, 40, 50, 32, 59

TBD

ATL

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#11

Background

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#11 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

10th matchup

Top arm

45.7

Pairing

44.2

Andrew Alvarez

WSH

Form 45.7 · 2.84 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.74.1 IP4.5 K1.3 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.732 OPS19.6% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Andrew Alvarez recent form GS+: 50, 39, 48

Nick Martinez

TB

Form 42.6 · 3.82 ERA

→Steady -2.1
6d rest82 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.66.0 IP3.2 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Nick Martinez recent form GS+: 46, 51, 20, 45, 51

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#12

Background

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#12 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

14th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

43.9

TBD

MIN

TBD

Ryne Nelson

AZ

Form 42.0 · 4.46 ERA

→Steady -0.2
6d rest95 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 41.76.1 IP3.1 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.734 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 3.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryne Nelson recent form GS+: 51, 38, 50, 20, 51

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#13 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.9871F / 8 mph wind / 23% rain

11th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

42.8

Davis Martin

CWS

Form 39.8 · 5.97 ERA

→Steady -3.4
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 39.95.0 IP4.9 K3.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS23.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Davis Martin recent form GS+: 43, 55, 20, 61, 20

Justin Verlander

DET

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#14

Background

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#14 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0077F / 13 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

42.9

TBD

LAA

TBD

Jack Perkins

ATH

Form 40.0 · 7.62 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest83 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 39.64.1 IP5.1 K3.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 5.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jack Perkins recent form GS+: 36, 40, 44

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#15

Background

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#15 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.1680F / 25 mph wind / 39% rain

15th matchup

Top arm

41.5

Pairing

40.2

Jared Jones

PIT

Form 41.5 · 6.23 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest75 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 39.74.1 IP4.2 K3.2 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.753 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 4.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Jared Jones recent form GS+: 34, 55, 48, 29

Michael Lorenzen

COL

Form 38.8 · 8.10 ERA

→Steady +2.1
6d rest84 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 37.04.1 IP4.5 K4.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.766 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 2nd
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Lorenzen recent form GS+: 33, 33, 20, 57, 51

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.