Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

This week's probable slates grouped by date. Each game is ranked once, by watchability, with both starters shown head-to-head.

Week's must-watch: MIL @ ATL / Jun 19 / #1 week pick
Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Jun 13

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 14

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 15

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 16

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 17

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 18

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park

Park 1.0177F / 11 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 18

NYMaway

Sean Manaea

Limited form sample

Last: vs ATL6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 KGS+ 58

Proj GS+ 57.76.0 IP6.0 K2.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.691 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 24th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

54.4

score

Top watch score on the slate

Form clash pending

PHIhome

Aaron Nola

Form 43.8 · 6.91 ERA

→Steady +3.5
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.55.0 IP4.7 K3.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.666 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 26th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Aaron Nola recent form GS+: 38, 55, 57, 29, 40

Top arm

58.0

Pairing

50.9

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#2

Must-watch

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#2 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0068F / 4 mph wind

3rd matchup

Top arm

54.4

Pairing

49.6

Matthew Liberatore

STL

Form 44.8 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.04.2 IP5.5 K2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Matthew Liberatore recent form GS+: 44, 48, 57, 39, 36

Noah Cameron

KC

Form 54.4 · 2.62 ERA

→Steady +1.4
5d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 54.65.2 IP4.9 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Noah Cameron recent form GS+: 60, 49, 66, 63, 34

#3

Must-watch

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#3 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0061F / 10 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

48.5

Pairing

47.2

TBD

LAA

TBD

Gage Jump

ATH

Form 48.5 · 3.09 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.76.0 IP4.9 K2.0 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Gage Jump recent form GS+: 36, 57, 55, 46

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#4 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0377F / 8 mph wind

7th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

43.6

Bryan Hudson

CWS

Limited

Ryan Weathers

NYY

Form 41.4 · 6.44 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.96.0 IP5.5 K4.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 16th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryan Weathers recent form GS+: 39, 57, 47, 38, 26

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

Jun 19

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park

Park 1.0174F / 5 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 19

MILaway

Jacob Misiorowski

Form 69.2 · 0.25 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 68.37.1 IP10.1 K0.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 10.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jacob Misiorowski recent form GS+: 65, 71, 70, 60, 80

The hook

62.4

score

Strikeout upside

MILForm clashATL

Jacob Misiorowski recent form GS+: 65, 71, 70, 60, 80

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50

ATLhome

Martín Pérez

Form 45.8 · 3.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.75.1 IP4.5 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.754 OPS20.4% KOPS rank 4th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50

Top arm

69.2

Pairing

57.5

#2

Must-watch

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#2 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

1st matchup

Top arm

63.5

Pairing

55.1

Ranger Suarez

BOS

Form 46.6 · 4.56 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.05.0 IP5.8 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.741 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 5.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Ranger Suarez recent form GS+: 47, 34, 46, 58, 48

Bryce Miller

SEA

Form 63.5 · 0.73 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest82 pitch avg
Run prevention
Proj GS+ 63.16.1 IP7.2 K0.4 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.680 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 7.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Bryce Miller recent form GS+: 65, 62, 66, 61

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#3

Must-watch

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#3 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0474F / 2 mph wind

3rd matchup

Top arm

52.8

Pairing

49.3

Kevin Gausman

TOR

Form 52.8 · 2.78 ERA

→Steady -0.9
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.56.0 IP6.4 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.722 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 6.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Kevin Gausman recent form GS+: 59, 51, 48, 43, 63

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#4 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0370F / 6 mph wind

8th matchup

Top arm

51.5

Pairing

51.2

Rhett Lowder

CIN

Form 51.5

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.34.1 IP4.7 K0.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.801 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Rhett Lowder recent form GS+: 50, 53

Cam Schlittler

NYY

Form 50.8 · 2.52 ERA

→Steady -2.2
6d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.65.2 IP5.4 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.747 OPS24.8% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Cam Schlittler recent form GS+: 50, 58, 38, 53, 55

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#5 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

4th matchup

Top arm

52.8

Pairing

44.7

Connor Prielipp

MIN

Form 36.6 · 6.46 ERA

→Steady -3.9
6d rest89 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 36.35.0 IP4.9 K3.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Connor Prielipp recent form GS+: 25, 27, 45, 49, 37

Michael Soroka

AZ

Form 52.8 · 2.63 ERA

→Steady +0.1
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.56.1 IP5.2 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.734 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Soroka recent form GS+: 49, 48, 45, 59, 63

#6

Worth it

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#6 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

5th matchup

Top arm

49.8

Pairing

49.2

Tanner Bibee

CLE

Form 48.6 · 3.72 ERA

→Steady +1.4
7d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.96.1 IP4.1 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Tanner Bibee recent form GS+: 58, 20, 47, 61, 57

Tatsuya Imai

HOU

Form 49.8 · 2.91 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample13d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.15.1 IP4.7 K1.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Tatsuya Imai recent form GS+: 45, 53, 51, 50

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#7 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

6th matchup

Top arm

48.6

Pairing

48.3

Cade Cavalli

WSH

Form 48.0 · 3.93 ERA

→Steady -0.8
6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.05.2 IP5.6 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.732 OPS19.6% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 5.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Cade Cavalli recent form GS+: 58, 56, 46, 33, 47

Griffin Jax

TB

Form 48.6 · 3.43 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest59 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.64.1 IP4.5 K1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Griffin Jax recent form GS+: 55, 44, 31, 56, 57

#8

Worth it

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium#8 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9856F / 4 mph wind

14th matchup

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

44.4

Trey Gibson

BAL

Form 37.0 · 6.14 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest87 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 37.65.0 IP2.7 K3.3 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.806 OPS20.3% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 2.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Trey Gibson recent form GS+: 41, 35, 35

Roki Sasaki

LAD

Form 51.8 · 3.45 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.65.2 IP6.0 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.746 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Roki Sasaki recent form GS+: 64, 45, 58, 70, 22

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#9

Background

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#9 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

11th matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

44.5

Randy Vásquez

SD

Form 38.8 · 4.50 ERA

→Steady -3.2
6d rest86 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 38.84.2 IP2.2 K2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.693 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 2.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Randy Vásquez recent form GS+: 35, 36, 46, 31, 46

Jacob deGrom

TEX

Form 50.2 · 3.94 ERA

→Steady +0.7
6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.25.1 IP5.1 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jacob deGrom recent form GS+: 23, 54, 62, 61, 51

#10

Background

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#10 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

7th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.1

Landen Roupp

SF

Form 42.4 · 5.68 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.05.0 IP4.7 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.706 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Landen Roupp recent form GS+: 48, 49, 20, 52, 43

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#11

Background

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#11 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0075F / 4 mph wind

9th matchup

Top arm

46.2

Pairing

43.5

Michael McGreevy

STL

Form 40.8 · 4.67 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest88 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 40.85.1 IP2.8 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.683 OPS20.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael McGreevy recent form GS+: 33, 34, 44, 51, 42

Seth Lugo

KC

Form 46.2 · 4.05 ERA

→Steady +0.0
9d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.45.1 IP3.9 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Seth Lugo recent form GS+: 51, 43, 55, 36, 46

#12

Background

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#12 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0058F / 5 mph wind

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

41.3

TBD

LAA

TBD

Jeffrey Springs

ATH

Form 36.8 · 6.60 ERA

→Steady -2.2
5d rest88 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 37.24.2 IP3.4 K3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 3.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Jeffrey Springs recent form GS+: 41, 50, 34, 29, 30

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#13 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9863F / 5 mph wind

10th matchup

Top arm

44.0

Pairing

42.5

Erick Fedde

CWS

Form 41.0

→Steady +0.0
Small sample16d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.64.0 IP2.0 K1.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS23.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Erick Fedde recent form GS+: 28, 54

Tarik Skubal

DET

Last: vs CLEGS+ 44

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#14

Background

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#14 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.1667F / 4 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

45.2

Pairing

38.7

Bubba Chandler

PIT

Form 45.2 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.14.2 IP4.8 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.753 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Bubba Chandler recent form GS+: 34, 66, 38, 36, 52

Kyle Freeland

COL

Form 32.2 · 10.05 ERA

→Steady +2.0
6d rest89 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 31.15.0 IP3.7 K5.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.690 OPS26.4% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 3.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Freeland recent form GS+: 39, 22, 34, 36, 30