Toe the Slab

Upcoming Starting Matchups

This week's probable slates grouped by date. Each game is ranked once, by watchability, with both starters shown head-to-head.

Week's must-watch: MIL @ ATL / Jun 19 / #1 week pick
Filters / Pregame only / Watch rank / All teams

Jun 16

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 17

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Slate complete

No active pregame matchups remain on this slate. Final or postponed games are removed from the upcoming watch list.

Jun 18

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park

Park 1.0177F / 12 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 18

NYMaway

Sean Manaea

Limited form sample

Last: vs ATL6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 KGS+ 58

Proj GS+ 57.66.0 IP6.0 K2.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.691 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 24th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

54.4

score

Top watch score on the slate

Form clash pending

PHIhome

Aaron Nola

Form 43.8 · 6.91 ERA

→Steady +3.5
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.45.0 IP4.7 K3.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.666 OPS22.0% KOPS rank 26th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Aaron Nola recent form GS+: 38, 55, 57, 29, 40

Top arm

58.0

Pairing

50.9

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#2

Must-watch

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#2 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0068F / 3 mph wind

3rd matchup

Top arm

54.4

Pairing

49.6

Matthew Liberatore

STL

Form 44.8 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.04.2 IP5.5 K2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Matthew Liberatore recent form GS+: 44, 48, 57, 39, 36

Noah Cameron

KC

Form 54.4 · 2.62 ERA

→Steady +1.4
5d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 54.65.2 IP4.9 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Noah Cameron recent form GS+: 60, 49, 66, 63, 34

#3

Must-watch

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#3 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0061F / 11 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

48.5

Pairing

47.2

TBD

LAA

TBD

Gage Jump

ATH

Form 48.5 · 3.09 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.66.0 IP4.9 K2.0 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Gage Jump recent form GS+: 36, 57, 55, 46

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

CWS @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#4 of 9 watch rank

Park 1.0377F / 9 mph wind

7th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

43.6

Bryan Hudson

CWS

Limited

Ryan Weathers

NYY

Form 41.4 · 6.44 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.96.0 IP5.5 K4.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 16th
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryan Weathers recent form GS+: 39, 57, 47, 38, 26

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

Jun 19

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park

Park 1.0174F / 5 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 19

MILaway

Jacob Misiorowski

Form 69.2 · 0.25 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 68.37.1 IP10.1 K0.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 10.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jacob Misiorowski recent form GS+: 65, 71, 70, 60, 80

The hook

62.4

score

Strikeout upside

MILForm clashATL

Jacob Misiorowski recent form GS+: 65, 71, 70, 60, 80

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50

ATLhome

Martín Pérez

Form 45.8 · 3.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.75.1 IP4.5 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.754 OPS20.4% KOPS rank 4th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Martín Pérez recent form GS+: 47, 48, 40, 44, 50

Top arm

69.2

Pairing

57.5

#2

Must-watch

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#2 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

1st matchup

Top arm

63.5

Pairing

55.1

Ranger Suarez

BOS

Form 46.6 · 4.56 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.05.0 IP5.8 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.741 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 5.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Ranger Suarez recent form GS+: 47, 34, 46, 58, 48

Bryce Miller

SEA

Form 63.5 · 0.73 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest82 pitch avg
Run prevention
Proj GS+ 63.16.1 IP7.2 K0.4 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.680 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 7.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Bryce Miller recent form GS+: 65, 62, 66, 61

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#3

Must-watch

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#3 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0474F / 2 mph wind

3rd matchup

Top arm

52.8

Pairing

49.3

Kevin Gausman

TOR

Form 52.8 · 2.78 ERA

→Steady -0.9
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.56.0 IP6.4 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.722 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 6.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Kevin Gausman recent form GS+: 59, 51, 48, 43, 63

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#4 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0370F / 6 mph wind

8th matchup

Top arm

51.5

Pairing

51.2

Rhett Lowder

CIN

Form 51.5

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.34.1 IP4.7 K0.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.801 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Rhett Lowder recent form GS+: 50, 53

Cam Schlittler

NYY

Form 50.8 · 2.52 ERA

→Steady -2.2
6d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.65.2 IP5.4 K1.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.747 OPS24.8% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Cam Schlittler recent form GS+: 50, 58, 38, 53, 55

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#5 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

4th matchup

Top arm

52.8

Pairing

44.7

Connor Prielipp

MIN

Form 36.6 · 6.46 ERA

→Steady -3.9
6d rest89 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 36.35.0 IP4.9 K3.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Connor Prielipp recent form GS+: 25, 27, 45, 49, 37

Michael Soroka

AZ

Form 52.8 · 2.63 ERA

→Steady +0.1
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.56.1 IP5.2 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.734 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Soroka recent form GS+: 49, 48, 45, 59, 63

#6

Worth it

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#6 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

5th matchup

Top arm

49.8

Pairing

49.2

Tanner Bibee

CLE

Form 48.6 · 3.72 ERA

→Steady +1.4
7d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.96.1 IP4.1 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Tanner Bibee recent form GS+: 58, 20, 47, 61, 57

Tatsuya Imai

HOU

Form 49.8 · 2.91 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample13d rest93 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.15.1 IP4.7 K1.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Tatsuya Imai recent form GS+: 45, 53, 51, 50

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#7 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

6th matchup

Top arm

48.6

Pairing

48.3

Cade Cavalli

WSH

Form 48.0 · 3.93 ERA

→Steady -0.8
6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.05.2 IP5.6 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.732 OPS19.6% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 5.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Cade Cavalli recent form GS+: 58, 56, 46, 33, 47

Griffin Jax

TB

Form 48.6 · 3.43 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest59 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.64.1 IP4.5 K1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Griffin Jax recent form GS+: 55, 44, 31, 56, 57

#8

Worth it

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium#8 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9856F / 4 mph wind

14th matchup

Top arm

51.8

Pairing

44.4

Trey Gibson

BAL

Form 37.0 · 6.14 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest87 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 37.65.0 IP2.7 K3.3 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.806 OPS20.3% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 2.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Trey Gibson recent form GS+: 41, 35, 35

Roki Sasaki

LAD

Form 51.8 · 3.45 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest90 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.65.2 IP6.0 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.746 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 6.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Roki Sasaki recent form GS+: 64, 45, 58, 70, 22

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#9

Background

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#9 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

11th matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

44.5

Randy Vásquez

SD

Form 38.8 · 4.50 ERA

→Steady -3.2
6d rest86 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 38.84.2 IP2.2 K2.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.693 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 2.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Randy Vásquez recent form GS+: 35, 36, 46, 31, 46

Jacob deGrom

TEX

Form 50.2 · 3.94 ERA

→Steady +0.7
6d rest86 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.25.1 IP5.1 K2.2 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jacob deGrom recent form GS+: 23, 54, 62, 61, 51

#10

Background

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#10 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

7th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.1

Landen Roupp

SF

Form 42.4 · 5.68 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.05.0 IP4.7 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.706 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 4.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Landen Roupp recent form GS+: 48, 49, 20, 52, 43

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#11

Background

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium#11 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0075F / 4 mph wind

9th matchup

Top arm

46.2

Pairing

43.5

Michael McGreevy

STL

Form 40.8 · 4.67 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest88 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 40.85.1 IP2.8 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.683 OPS20.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael McGreevy recent form GS+: 33, 34, 44, 51, 42

Seth Lugo

KC

Form 46.2 · 4.05 ERA

→Steady +0.0
9d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.45.1 IP3.9 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.712 OPS16.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Seth Lugo recent form GS+: 51, 43, 55, 36, 46

#12

Background

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#12 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0058F / 5 mph wind

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

41.3

TBD

LAA

TBD

Jeffrey Springs

ATH

Form 36.8 · 6.60 ERA

→Steady -2.2
5d rest88 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 37.24.2 IP3.4 K3.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 3.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Jeffrey Springs recent form GS+: 41, 50, 34, 29, 30

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#13 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9863F / 5 mph wind

10th matchup

Top arm

44.0

Pairing

42.5

Erick Fedde

CWS

Form 41.0

→Steady +0.0
Small sample16d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.64.0 IP2.0 K1.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS23.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 2.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Erick Fedde recent form GS+: 28, 54

Tarik Skubal

DET

Last: vs CLEGS+ 44

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#14

Background

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#14 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.1667F / 4 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

45.2

Pairing

38.7

Bubba Chandler

PIT

Form 45.2 · 5.32 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.14.2 IP4.8 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.753 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Bubba Chandler recent form GS+: 34, 66, 38, 36, 52

Kyle Freeland

COL

Form 32.2 · 10.05 ERA

→Steady +2.0
6d rest89 pitch avg
Getting hit
Proj GS+ 31.15.0 IP3.7 K5.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.690 OPS26.4% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 3.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Freeland recent form GS+: 39, 22, 34, 36, 30

Jun 20

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Park 0.9863F / 5 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 20

BALaway

Trevor Rogers

Form 42.6 · 5.97 ERA

→Steady +3.8
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.05.2 IP2.9 K3.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.732 OPS20.5% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 2.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Trevor Rogers recent form GS+: 36, 39, 49, 40, 49

The hook

54.8

score

Top watch score on the slate

BALForm clashLAD

Trevor Rogers recent form GS+: 36, 39, 49, 40, 49

Yoshinobu Yamamoto recent form GS+: 62, 51, 66, 59, 66

LADhome

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Form 60.8 · 1.01 ERA

→Steady +0.0
7d rest101 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 60.47.0 IP6.3 K0.7 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 6.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Yoshinobu Yamamoto recent form GS+: 62, 51, 66, 59, 66

Top arm

60.8

Pairing

51.7

#2

Must-watch

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park#2 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0173F / 5 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

57.6

Pairing

50.8

Freddy Peralta

NYM

Form 44.0 · 5.08 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest98 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.05.2 IP4.8 K2.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.691 OPS23.4% KOPS rank 24th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Freddy Peralta recent form GS+: 47, 37, 52, 34, 50

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI

Form 57.6 · 1.44 ERA

→Steady -2.9
6d rest97 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 57.67.0 IP7.9 K1.1 ERhigh confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.675 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 7.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Cristopher Sánchez recent form GS+: 63, 67, 62, 60, 36

#3

Must-watch

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park#3 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0182F / 6 mph wind / 12% rain

3rd matchup

Top arm

53.4

Pairing

52.6

Kyle Harrison

MIL

Form 53.4 · 3.00 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest89 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 53.15.1 IP6.1 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 6.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Kyle Harrison recent form GS+: 71, 54, 64, 20, 58

Chris Sale

ATL

Form 51.8 · 3.09 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample10d rest101 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.76.0 IP7.2 K2.1 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.691 OPS21.5% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 7.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Chris Sale recent form GS+: 64, 51, 42, 50

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#4

Worth it

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#4 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

8th matchup

Top arm

53.8

Pairing

48.0

Trevor McDonald

SF

Form 42.2 · 5.34 ERA

→Steady -2.1
7d rest84 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 41.84.2 IP4.0 K2.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.706 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 4.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Trevor McDonald recent form GS+: 29, 52, 42, 54, 34

Max Meyer

MIA

Form 53.8 · 2.17 ERA

→Steady -1.2
6d rest99 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 54.26.1 IP6.7 K1.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.735 OPS19.7% KOPS rank 10th
Proj K 6.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Max Meyer recent form GS+: 67, 39, 60, 45, 58

#5

Worth it

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#5 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

2nd matchup

Top arm

50.2

Pairing

47.2

Walker Buehler

SD

Form 50.2 · 2.90 ERA

→Steady +0.4
6d rest80 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.25.1 IP4.4 K1.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.693 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 4.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Walker Buehler recent form GS+: 41, 51, 57, 47, 55

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX

Form 44.2 · 4.31 ERA

→Steady -3.3
6d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.26.2 IP5.6 K3.0 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Nathan Eovaldi recent form GS+: 48, 46, 40, 36, 51

#6

Worth it

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#6 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.1668F / 6 mph wind

9th matchup

Top arm

52.0

Pairing

46.2

Paul Skenes

PIT

Form 52.0 · 4.22 ERA

→Steady +1.8
6d rest103 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.85.1 IP6.9 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.677 OPS26.4% KOPS rank 22nd
Proj K 6.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Paul Skenes recent form GS+: 32, 59, 55, 55, 59

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL

Form 40.4 · 5.17 ERA

→Steady +0.7
6d rest93 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 39.25.1 IP2.8 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.766 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 2nd
Proj K 2.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Tomoyuki Sugano recent form GS+: 47, 44, 47, 38, 26

#7

Worth it

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#7 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0057F / 7 mph wind

4th matchup

Top arm

49.4

Pairing

47.6

TBD

LAA

TBD

J.T. Ginn

ATH

Form 49.4 · 2.65 ERA

→Steady -2.6
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.85.1 IP5.1 K1.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.713 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 5.1prop pendingTeam total pending

J.T. Ginn recent form GS+: 41, 57, 61, 35, 53

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#8 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.9876F / 13 mph wind / 35% rain

7th matchup

Top arm

48.0

Pairing

46.9

TBD

CWS

TBD

Troy Melton

DET

Form 48.0 · 2.81 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample11d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.36.1 IP3.3 K1.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.723 OPS24.0% KOPS rank 16th
Proj K 3.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Troy Melton recent form GS+: 51, 47, 54, 40

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#9

Background

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#9 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

5th matchup

Top arm

46.4

Pairing

45.6

Connelly Early

BOS

Form 44.8 · 4.64 ERA

→Steady -1.7
6d rest95 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.25.2 IP5.2 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Connelly Early recent form GS+: 45, 65, 43, 47, 24

Emerson Hancock

SEA

Form 46.4 · 3.38 ERA

→Steady -1.8
6d rest83 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.85.1 IP4.0 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.680 OPS22.2% KOPS rank 25th
Proj K 4.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Emerson Hancock recent form GS+: 44, 56, 57, 52, 23

#10

Background

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#10 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

Miles Mikolas

WSH

Limited

TBD

TB

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#11

Background

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#11 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0377F / 16 mph wind

10th matchup

Top arm

47.0

Pairing

45.5

Andrew Abbott

CIN

Form 47.0 · 3.24 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest100 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.35.2 IP3.9 K2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.763 OPS22.7% KOPS rank 3rd
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Andrew Abbott recent form GS+: 51, 45, 42, 49, 48

Will Warren

NYY

Form 44.0 · 3.55 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 43.35.0 IP3.3 K2.1 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 3.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Will Warren recent form GS+: 40, 46, 54, 44, 36

#12

Background

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#12 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.0475F / 9 mph wind / 10% rain

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

44.5

Patrick Corbin

TOR

Form 43.2 · 5.40 ERA

→Steady +0.9
6d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.74.2 IP3.3 K2.6 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.751 OPS21.8% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 3.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Patrick Corbin recent form GS+: 56, 51, 35, 31, 43

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#13 of 14 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

14th matchup

Top arm

46.6

Pairing

43.1

Joey Cantillo

CLE

Form 39.6 · 6.75 ERA

→Steady +0.3
7d rest87 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 38.94.1 IP4.0 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Joey Cantillo recent form GS+: 59, 25, 35, 28, 51

Spencer Arrighetti

HOU

Form 46.6 · 3.15 ERA

→Steady -2.2
6d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 46.75.1 IP4.5 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Spencer Arrighetti recent form GS+: 57, 52, 33, 49, 42

#14

Background

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#14 of 14 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

12th matchup

Top arm

40.8

Pairing

39.1

Taj Bradley

MIN

Form 40.8 · 6.57 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 40.55.0 IP5.7 K3.7 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.7prop pendingTeam total pending

Taj Bradley recent form GS+: 57, 40, 34, 27, 46

Zac Gallen

AZ

Form 37.4 · 5.79 ERA

→Steady -2.1
6d rest87 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 37.15.1 IP3.3 K3.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.695 OPS21.9% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 3.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Zac Gallen recent form GS+: 46, 30, 34, 35, 42

Jun 21

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

STL @ KC

PregameKauffman Stadium

Park 1.0079F / 8 mph wind / 62% rain

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 21

STLaway

Dustin May

Form 60.0 · 2.54 ERA

→Steady +3.0
6d rest94 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 60.06.2 IP6.8 K1.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS21.6% KOPS rank 20th
Proj K 6.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Dustin May recent form GS+: 43, 66, 53, 61, 77

The hook

58.0

score

Top watch score on the slate

STLForm clashKC

Dustin May recent form GS+: 43, 66, 53, 61, 77

Stephen Kolek recent form GS+: 60, 42, 54, 48, 62

KChome

Stephen Kolek

Form 53.2 · 1.59 ERA

→Steady -0.3
7d rest96 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 52.46.2 IP3.9 K1.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.721 OPS22.4% KOPS rank 18th
Proj K 3.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Stephen Kolek recent form GS+: 60, 42, 54, 48, 62

Top arm

60.0

Pairing

56.6

#2

Must-watch

SF @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#2 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

2nd matchup

Top arm

59.5

Pairing

52.7

Logan Webb

SF

Form 59.5 · 0.66 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest97 pitch avg
Going deeper
Proj GS+ 59.17.0 IP5.9 K0.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.716 OPS24.3% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 5.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Logan Webb recent form GS+: 48, 61, 63, 66

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#3

Must-watch

BOS @ SEA

PregameT-Mobile Park#3 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.95Indoor

5th matchup

Top arm

58.4

Pairing

53.3

Payton Tolle

BOS

Form 48.2 · 3.53 ERA

→Steady -1.0
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 48.65.2 IP4.8 K2.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.741 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 9th
Proj K 4.8prop pendingTeam total pending

Payton Tolle recent form GS+: 51, 52, 55, 37, 46

Logan Gilbert

SEA

Form 58.4 · 2.95 ERA

→Steady +3.7
5d rest97 pitch avg
Run prevention
Proj GS+ 58.86.0 IP6.5 K1.9 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.739 OPS21.4% KOPS rank 8th
Proj K 6.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Logan Gilbert recent form GS+: 59, 59, 50, 56, 68

#4

Worth it

NYM @ PHI

PregameCitizens Bank Park#4 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0173F / 5 mph wind

1st matchup

Top arm

56.4

Pairing

51.1

TBD

NYM

TBD

Zack Wheeler

PHI

Form 56.4 · 1.66 ERA

→Steady -1.4
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 56.46.1 IP6.4 K1.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.675 OPS22.3% KOPS rank 23rd
Proj K 6.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Zack Wheeler recent form GS+: 61, 43, 60, 54, 64

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#5

Worth it

CIN @ NYY

PregameYankee Stadium#5 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0380F / 3 mph wind

7th matchup

Top arm

56.6

Pairing

53.1

Chase Burns

CIN

Form 56.6 · 2.28 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest96 pitch avg
K-rate ↑
Proj GS+ 56.25.2 IP7.5 K1.4 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.801 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 7.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Chase Burns recent form GS+: 66, 53, 55, 53, 56

Gerrit Cole

NYY

Form 49.6 · 2.57 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.25.2 IP4.4 K1.6 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 4.4prop pendingTeam total pending

Gerrit Cole recent form GS+: 51, 68, 34, 42, 53

#6

Worth it

TOR @ CHC

PregameWrigley Field#6 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0461F / 10 mph wind / 69% rain

4th matchup

Top arm

54.5

Pairing

50.2

Dylan Cease

TOR

Form 54.5 · 3.48 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest94 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 54.65.1 IP8.6 K1.9 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.722 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 8.6prop pendingTeam total pending

Dylan Cease recent form GS+: 45, 52, 66, 55

TBD

CHC

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#7

Worth it

BAL @ LAD

PregameUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium#7 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.9870F / 7 mph wind

9th matchup

Top arm

51.2

Pairing

49.8

Brandon Young

BAL

Form 51.2 · 2.48 ERA

→Steady +1.7
5d rest91 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 51.46.2 IP4.3 K1.7 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.806 OPS20.3% KOPS rank 1st
Proj K 4.3prop pendingTeam total pending

Brandon Young recent form GS+: 55, 52, 46, 62, 41

Emmet Sheehan

LAD

Form 48.3 · 4.64 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample7d rest84 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 47.75.1 IP5.0 K2.6 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.746 OPS23.1% KOPS rank 7th
Proj K 5.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Emmet Sheehan recent form GS+: 37, 54, 51, 51

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#8

Worth it

SD @ TEX

PregameGlobe Life Field#8 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

50.0

Pairing

47.9

TBD

SD

TBD

MacKenzie Gore

TEX

Form 50.0 · 3.41 ERA

→Steady +0.0
6d rest97 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 50.05.2 IP5.5 K2.0 ERmedium confidence
Proj K 5.5prop pendingTeam total pending

MacKenzie Gore recent form GS+: 61, 55, 34, 46, 54

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#9

Background

CLE @ HOU

PregameDaikin Park#9 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.99Indoor

8th matchup

Top arm

49.4

Pairing

45.1

Slade Cecconi

CLE

Form 49.4 · 3.24 ERA

→Steady -0.4
5d rest81 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 49.55.1 IP4.1 K1.8 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.729 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 13th
Proj K 4.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Slade Cecconi recent form GS+: 47, 40, 56, 53, 51

Kai-Wei Teng

HOU

Form 40.8 · 5.40 ERA

→Steady -3.0
6d rest88 pitch avg
Walks ↑
Proj GS+ 40.94.2 IP5.2 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.699 OPS20.9% KOPS rank 17th
Proj K 5.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Kai-Wei Teng recent form GS+: 60, 45, 30, 31, 38

#10

Background

WSH @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#10 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

10th matchup

Top arm

45.7

Pairing

44.2

Andrew Alvarez

WSH

Form 45.7 · 2.84 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest77 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 45.74.1 IP4.5 K1.3 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.732 OPS19.6% KOPS rank 12th
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Andrew Alvarez recent form GS+: 50, 39, 48

Nick Martinez

TB

Form 42.6 · 3.82 ERA

→Steady -2.1
6d rest82 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 42.66.0 IP3.2 K2.5 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.725 OPS20.6% KOPS rank 14th
Proj K 3.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Nick Martinez recent form GS+: 46, 51, 20, 45, 51

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#11

Background

MIN @ AZ

PregameChase Field#11 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.03Indoor

14th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

43.9

TBD

MIN

TBD

Ryne Nelson

AZ

Form 42.0 · 4.46 ERA

→Steady -0.2
6d rest95 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 41.76.1 IP3.1 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.734 OPS22.6% KOPS rank 11th
Proj K 3.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Ryne Nelson recent form GS+: 51, 38, 50, 20, 51

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#12

Background

LAA @ ATH

PregameSutter Health Park#12 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0078F / 12 mph wind

12th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

42.9

TBD

LAA

TBD

Jack Perkins

ATH

Form 40.0 · 7.62 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample5d rest83 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 39.74.1 IP5.1 K3.5 ERlow confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.711 OPS24.7% KOPS rank 15th
Proj K 5.1prop pendingTeam total pending

Jack Perkins recent form GS+: 36, 40, 44

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#13

Background

CWS @ DET

PregameComerica Park#13 of 15 watch rank

Park 0.9873F / 10 mph wind / 13% rain

13th matchup

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

42.8

Davis Martin

CWS

Form 39.8 · 5.97 ERA

→Steady -3.4
5d rest92 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 39.85.0 IP4.9 K3.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.709 OPS23.2% KOPS rank 21st
Proj K 4.9prop pendingTeam total pending

Davis Martin recent form GS+: 43, 55, 20, 61, 20

Justin Verlander

DET

Limited

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

#14

Background

MIL @ ATL

PregameTruist Park#14 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.0184F / 9 mph wind / 45% rain

11th matchup

Top arm

44.8

Pairing

42.0

Robert Gasser

MIL

Form 44.8 · 4.88 ERA

→Steady +0.0
5d rest87 pitch avg
Proj GS+ 44.64.2 IP4.2 K2.3 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.748 OPS21.1% KOPS rank 6th
Proj K 4.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Robert Gasser recent form GS+: 43, 40, 50, 32, 59

Bryce Elder

ATL

Form 39.2 · 5.29 ERA

→Steady -1.6
7d rest82 pitch avg
K-rate ↓
Proj GS+ 38.25.1 IP3.0 K3.1 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs LHP 0.691 OPS21.5% KOPS rank 19th
Proj K 3.0prop pendingTeam total pending

Bryce Elder recent form GS+: 52, 23, 50, 50, 21

#15

Background

PIT @ COL

PregameCoors Field#15 of 15 watch rank

Park 1.1676F / 19 mph wind / 32% rain

15th matchup

Top arm

41.5

Pairing

40.2

Jared Jones

PIT

Form 41.5 · 6.23 ERA

→Steady +0.0
Small sample6d rest75 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 39.74.1 IP4.2 K3.2 ERlow confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.753 OPS22.1% KOPS rank 5th
Proj K 4.2prop pendingTeam total pending

Jared Jones recent form GS+: 34, 55, 48, 29

Michael Lorenzen

COL

Form 38.8 · 8.10 ERA

→Steady +2.1
6d rest84 pitch avg
Short outings
Proj GS+ 37.04.1 IP4.5 K4.0 ERmedium confidence
Opp vs RHP 0.766 OPS22.5% KOPS rank 2nd
Proj K 4.5prop pendingTeam total pending

Michael Lorenzen recent form GS+: 33, 33, 20, 57, 51

Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.

Jun 22

Must-Watch Games

Ranked by starter form, pairing quality, and matchup context. Matchup values are shown with a slate rank, never as a bare number.

Data through MLB Stats APIBaseball SavantOpen-Meteo

Day slate

Must-watch

NYY @ DET

PregameComerica Park

Park 0.9863F / 8 mph wind

Top watch score

#1 on Jun 22

NYYaway

TBD

Starter TBDleague baseline used

Projection pending

Proj K --prop pendingTeam total pending

The hook

46.6

score

Top watch score on the slate

Form clash pending

DEThome

TBD

Starter TBDleague baseline used

Projection pending

Proj K --prop pendingTeam total pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#2

Must-watch

KC @ TB

PregameTropicana Field#2 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.00Forecast unavailable

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

KC

TBD

TBD

TB

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#3

Must-watch

TEX @ MIA

PregameloanDepot park#3 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.96Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

TEX

TBD

TBD

MIA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#4

Worth it

PHI @ WSH

PregameNationals Park#4 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.0071F / 8 mph wind / 40% rain

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

PHI

TBD

TBD

WSH

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#5

Worth it

HOU @ TOR

PregameRogers Centre#5 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.02Indoor

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

HOU

TBD

TBD

TOR

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#6

Worth it

MIL @ CIN

PregameGreat American Ball Park#6 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.0864F / 3 mph wind / 13% rain

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

MIL

TBD

TBD

CIN

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#7

Worth it

LAD @ MIN

PregameTarget Field#7 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.9958F / 2 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

LAD

TBD

TBD

MIN

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#8

Worth it

CLE @ CWS

PregameRate Field#8 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.0165F / 11 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

CLE

TBD

TBD

CWS

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#9

Background

AZ @ STL

PregameBusch Stadium#9 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.9771F / 5 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

AZ

TBD

TBD

STL

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#10

Background

BOS @ COL

PregameCoors Field#10 of 13 watch rank

Park 1.1661F / 14 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

BOS

TBD

TBD

COL

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#11

Background

BAL @ LAA

PregameAngel Stadium#11 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.9866F / 3 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

BAL

TBD

TBD

LAA

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#12

Background

ATL @ SD

PregamePetco Park#12 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.9566F / 5 mph wind

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

45.8

TBD

ATL

TBD

TBD

SD

TBD

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.

#13

Background

CHC @ NYM

PregameCiti Field#13 of 13 watch rank

Park 0.9763F / 6 mph wind / 66% rain

Matchup pending

Top arm

45.8

Pairing

40.9

TBD

CHC

TBD

Kodai Senga

NYM

Last: vs CINGS+ 36

Limited

TBD starter included with league-mean fallback. Limited form samples use baseline fallback where needed.Opponent split context pending.